On October 28, 2009, in conjunction with the Lecture Fund and the Taiwanese-American Student Association, the IRC hosted three experts on the trilateral relationship between the US, China, and Taiwan for a Cross Strait Dialogue. Mr. Kuo-Yu Tung, Deputy Representative at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US, focused on the history of US-Taiwanese relations and the current status quo. Dr. Nancy Tucker, a Professor of History here at Georgetown, spoke on the relationship between China and Taiwan, and Visiting Professor Dr. Robert Sutter completed the “triangle” by discussing the current relations between the US and China.

Mr. Kuo-Yu Tung opened the lecture with a brief overview of American-Taiwanese interaction, centering on nations’ traditional close ties since Taiwan’s creation following World War II. Of critical importance to historical relations, Mr. Kuo Yu-Tung repeatedly mentioned, is the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress in April of 1979, which provides guidelines for American-Taiwanese diplomacy, trade and alliance-building through informal channels, necessary due to America’s refusal to recognize Taiwan as a state post-1979. He highlighted the period between 2000 and 2008 as the low point of US-Taiwan relations, characterized by tensions in the crucial trilateral relationship and mutual distrust. However, “eroding trust” has given way to “rebuilding trust” since Taiwan’s elections in March 2008. Mr. Kuo-Yu Tung also outlined Taiwan’s current greatest interests regarding the US: having cabinet-level members of the US government visit the island, expansion of the Visa Waiver Program to Taiwan, sale of F-16 fighter jets and other airplanes to the Taiwanese military, and the extradition of Taiwanese criminals currently in the United States back to Taiwan to be brought to justice.

While Mr. Kuo-Yu Tung’s outlook on US-Taiwanese relations and the greater trilateral relationship was relatively optimistic, Dr. Tucker took a slightly more pessimistic view, especially with regards to Taiwan and China’s relationship. She began by saying that the situation is currently characterized by “confidence and danger,” or that, while we as Americans can be confident that an all-out war is unlikely, relations are in a dangerous place. While some facets of Taiwan and China’s relations have improved, including a diplomatic truce between the two, Taiwan’s reduction of focus on UN membership, and the ever-important Chinese donation of several pandas to the Taiwanese government, Tucker points out that military issues remain firmly unsolved and that the potential for the election of a Taiwanese government less friendly towards China hinders the warming of relations. Startlingly, as she neared her conclusion, Tucker declared that the Taiwan Strait is today “the most dangerous place in the world,” and the only region where two nuclear superpowers could feasibly collide.

While perhaps speaking less starkly about the overt danger of the trilateral relationship, Dr. Sutter’s analysis of the situation brings a new problem to light: that of potentially weakening relations between the US and Taiwan. Right now, he argued, China and Taiwan are both gaining from their improved relations: economically, it benefits both, and politically, China obtains influence while Taiwan achieves a degree of stability. Similarly, the US supports this and is unlikely to challenge China to cede further concessions, given the economic interdependence between China and the US and the simple fact that, as Sutter put it, Barack Obama and Hu Jintao are busy, and frankly have a lot more important things to deal with right now. The third side of the triangle, the relationship between the US and Taiwan, is the weakening one, Sutter argues, with Taiwan more and more reliant on China and – progressively – accepting of some mainland Chinese influence. The US and Taiwan, traditionally extremely close allies, could potentially be drifting away. Sutter said that, in the past, he would teach that “no country is more dependent on the US than Taiwan is,” but he added that he feels that is no longer true. Regardless of whether the US and Taiwan are indeed growing apart or growing back together, or whether the Taiwan Strait is truly the most dangerous place in the world, the three speakers illuminated a topic that is often vastly oversimplified, and all pointed out that, regardless of the direction, intense change is indeed occurring between these three entities, and attention should be paid to this crucial trilateral relationship.

- Michael Lopesciolo

Comments are closed.